Cybersecurity could eat 20% of token compute, analysts model an AI arms race
BenBajarin · x · 2026-11-05
Ben Bajarin says his team has been modeling this since June: cyber offense/defense is becoming a continuous compute-intensive arms race.
Key points from the quoted thread:
- Amazon's CEO estimates cybersecurity could consume 20% of tokens over the next year
- Vulnerability discovery vs. model capability is fundamentally a question of how much compute you throw at it
- It's escalating to a nation-state issue: AI-driven vulnerability discovery is already hitting banks/infrastructure (e.g., PHP vulnerabilities)
- Investment implication: if it's a compute problem, the economics flow to infrastructure — neoclouds, Nebius, etc. — not to security software names like CrowdStrike or Cloudflare, which the author calls a bubble
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