Orbital AI datacenters break even near $200/kg launch cost, versus ~$3,000 today
shashib · x · 2026-11-04
shashib lays out the orbital AI compute economics: space-based computing breaks even near $200 per kilogram of launch, versus roughly $3,000/kg today.
K2 Space was valued at $6.8 billion in July, partly on its space datacenter promise; Marketplace toured its factory:
- Capacity: K2's next satellite carries enough power for about one rack of AI servers; a 1GW orbital AI campus would need 10,000 of them;
- Cost logic: K2 builds bigger satellites from cheaper materials and bets on falling launch prices — ask any vendor what launch price their orbital roadmap assumes;
- Supply risk: K2 depends on SpaceX and Blue Origin rockets, and both plan orbital datacenters of their own.
His advice: plan AI capacity for 2027-2030 on terrestrial power.
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