AI researcher: evidence for fast intelligence explosion is thin — diffusion bottlenecks may bind first
pwlot · x · 2026-11-04
AI researcher Herbie Bradley argues that automating most AI research may not trigger an intelligence explosion: very fast takeoff scenarios occupy a small slice of the possibility space. Evidence for imminent self-sustaining RSI with rapid capability gains is limited; the alternative hypothesis — capability gains gated by diffusion and other bottlenecks after AI R&D automation — deserves heavy weight.
Quoting this, pwlot criticizes naive extrapolation-from-current-evidence forecasting, arguing for first-principles reasoning about the underlying ML, and suggests studying people who consistently predicted breakthroughs others saw no evidence for.
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