Anthropic's AGI threshold: AI substituting all researchers or doubling R&D pace
DKokotajlo · x · 2026-11-04
Daniel Kokotajlo shares the verbatim definition of an AGI threshold: it's met if either (1) models can fully substitute for all Research Scientists and Engineers at competitive costs (within 5x), or (2) AI R&D automation roughly doubles the pace of AI capability progress, attributable to automation rather than more headcount or compute.
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