AI datacenter capex hits $1.2T in 2026 as growth peaks at 56% — the 'second derivative' worry explained
TiernanRayTech · x · 2026-11-03
In the TL Podcast, Tiernan Ray breaks down the 'second derivative' — the concept at the heart of current AI bubble worries.
- Datacenter spending across tech giants rose 51% in 2025 and is projected to rise another 56% in 2026, reaching $1.2 trillion.
- Growth then asymptotes: 22%, 14%, 10%, 6% — the law of large numbers guarantees slowing, which is exactly what spooks markets about the second derivative turning negative.
- He also engages the subprime mortgage comparison: both start from legitimate demand; the question is what happens next.
A clear framework for reasoning about the AI capex cycle and bubble narrative.
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