Kimi K3.1 Pro predicted to score ~160 on AA Progress Index, per regression extrapolation
scaling01 · x · 2026-11-02
Replying to a user asking "where is Kimi K3.1 Pro?", scaling01 predicted it will score "probably around 160", backed by a regression chart. The chart regresses Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI) on the Artificial Analysis Progress Index (US models n=115, r=0.986; Chinese models n=55, r=0.957). Feeding K3.1 Pro's Progress score of 340.70 in: the US fit predicts 163.3 ECI, the Chinese fit extrapolates to 159.0 ECI — i.e., roughly 159-163, beyond the observed range of Chinese models. In the same thread scaling01 added that Mythos preview is expected around 161. Unconfirmed third-party speculation.
Related event: Leak Predicts Kimi K3.1 Pro and Mythos Preview Scoring Around 160(2 posts)→
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