Sequoia's SpaceX bottom-up model to 2028 turned into an interactive forecast site built with ChatGPT
ColinWPLewis · x · 2026-11-02
Sequoia partner Shaun Maguire spent a week building a bottom-up SpaceX financial model through end-2028, calling the resulting numbers 'insane' and publishing assumptions for debate (not investment advice; Sequoia is a major SpaceX shareholder).
Ed Leon Klinger then turned it into the interactive Orbital Thesis site, combining @bot for research/structure with @ChatGPT for the build. Visitors can tweak assumptions across baseline/downside/upside scenarios and see revenue, earnings and cash forecasts for 2026–2028, with CSV export.
Key details:
- Revenue driven by compute, satellite connectivity and launch services
- Includes Maguire's 2020 Starlink forecast replayed against actual trajectory (revenue and EBITDA after dish costs)
- The site transparently documents gaps between component rows and reported SI totals
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