Tracker: Chinese open-weight models ~6-8 months behind frontier, gap widening past a year
scaling01 · x · 2026-11-02
scaling01 shares a running tracker of estimates for how far open-weight/Chinese models trail closed frontier models: steady "6-8 months" readings from Nov 2025 through Jul 2026, coding gaps slightly smaller (4-6 months). The latest Jul 19 entry (post-Kimi K3) shows a backward-looking gap of 4.37-5.29 months but a forward-looking gap to Mythos-Preview of 8.57-8.83 months — meaning the real gap is widening past a year once frontier progress is factored in.
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