YouGov poll: Americans vastly overestimate minority group sizes — transgender estimated at 21%, actually 0.6%
AndyMasley · x · 2026-11-02
Two YouGov surveys asking Americans to guess the share of adults in 43 different groups reveal systematic overestimation of minorities: gay/lesbian estimated 30% (actual 3%), transgender 21% (0.6%), Muslims 27% (1%), Jewish Americans 30% (2%), Native Americans 27% (1%). The poster cites this to argue online epistemics are far worse than people realize — public perception of population composition diverges wildly from reality.
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