Sequoia's Shaun Maguire builds SpaceX model projecting $731B revenue by 2028
FinanceYF5 · x · 2026-11-01
Sequoia Capital partner Shaun Maguire spent a week building a bottom-up financial model for SpaceX extending through the end of 2028, calling the resulting numbers "pretty crazy."
Key outputs from the model:
- Revenue: $51.5B in FY2026 growing to $731B by FY2028; Starlink connectivity reaching $88.5B and the SI (Starship infrastructure/compute) business $622B in 2028 as the main growth engine
- Operating income: $483B by FY2028, with Adjusted EBITDA of $536B
- Key assumptions: Starship launches scaling from 2 to 250 per year; orbital compute growing to 2.8GW alongside 21GW of terrestrial compute
Maguire notes the prediction range remains wide given how fast SpaceX is changing; the goal is to break a complex business into a framework of publicly discussable numbers. Not investment advice — Sequoia is a major SpaceX shareholder.
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