Friedberg: $1 of Nvidia COGS becomes $18 of Anthropic revenue via SpaceX margin
firstadopter · x · 2026-11-01
@firesidealpha quotes David Friedberg's back-of-envelope math on the AI compute chain: every $1 of Nvidia COGS becomes $4 of Nvidia revenue at 75% margin; SpaceX then buys the chips for Colossus 1 ($10B over a 5-year depreciation, $2B/year) while earning $1.25B a month, roughly an 83% margin; Anthropic's S-1 shows 85% incremental gross margin, so each Nvidia dollar ends up as $18 of Anthropic customer revenue.
Also in the thread: David Sacks says Anthropic's per-task cost drops 10x yearly, letting it cut prices 50% while expanding gross margin to 85%; Chamath admits he underestimated Anthropic's cash ($125B by June, only $9-10B cumulative net burn) and now sees the IPO needing $80-120B at a $1.3-1.7T valuation, midpoint $1.5T. The poster, firstadopter, sarcastically doubts Ed Zitron accurately conveyed these economics to Jon Stewart.
More from Venture
- Analyst maps OpenAI vs Anthropic coding race: Opus 5.5 sparks Anthropic revenue rebound — firstadopter · 2026-11-01
- teortaxesTex suspects journalists and finance bros are using FUD to cool the market — teortaxesTex · 2026-11-01
- Intel crashes 30% in worst day in 50 years as Anthropic junk-rating rumor spreads — teortaxesTex · 2026-11-01
- Reddit suffers worst day since IPO, stock plunges 29% as CEO blames Google AI Mode for traffic loss — oran_ge · 2026-11-01
- Chip shortage may be an illusion, hedge fund CIO tells FT — SumitGup · 2026-11-01
- Inverse Zitron: A Counter-Thesis Investment Strategy Against the AI Bear Case — chalmovsky · 2026-11-01