Nasdaq Shed $1.3T as OpenAI Cuts Raise to $20B; 40% of AI Capital Goes to Two Companies
AccBalanced · x · 2026-10-31
VC Ed Sim (Boldstart) shares market notes from his AGM: the AI trade is unwinding fast. After earnings misses from Amazon, Google and Intel, the Nasdaq 100 fell 3.6% in a day, erasing over $1.3 trillion in market cap — its worst day since June 5.
Per FT, OpenAI cut its fundraising target from $30B to $20B and its valuation target from $1.4T to $1.25T as some investors reduced commitments amid the selloff; the initial close is expected to fall short, and plenty of other deals are being repriced.
Capital is extremely concentrated: 40% of dollars went to just Anthropic and OpenAI, the top ten deals took nearly 70%, and rounds of $50M+ now capture 90% of all capital. Kingmaking has moved to inception itself: the chart shows 39% of US AI/ML priced first rounds in 2026 YTD are $10M+, with 17% already Super Jumbo ($20M+) versus roughly 2% in 2021.
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