Forethought: first movers could lock rivals out of space for $49-73B premium
willmacaskill · x · 2026-10-31
A new Forethought piece asks whether a first mover could lock others out of outer space. It distinguishes 'soft' lock-out — capturing scarce assets like orbital bands (filled with data centres) and prime lunar sites, adding an estimated $49-73B premium (5-7% on a $1T build) for followers — and 'hard' lock-out using space-based kinetic interceptors destroying rockets at launch. The authors analyze whether rivals could break such a lock and what it takes to sustain it through an intelligence explosion.
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