Gary Marcus: 80%+ odds AI capex is the greatest capital misallocation in history
GaryMarcus · x · 2026-10-29
Citing ZeroHedge data, Gary Marcus notes Google's free cash flow was negative for a second straight quarter (-$9.1bn vs -$3.5bn consensus), with trailing-12-month FCF collapsing 73% to $19.7bn from $73.6bn a year ago. Meta has just joined the negative cash flow club, while OpenAI and Anthropic have been negative from the start (barring one subsidized quarter).
His verdict: with these giant cash machines all burning money, there is at least an 80% chance this turns out to be the greatest capital misallocation in history.
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