Extrapolating Elo curves: end-of-2026 'GPT-6' would beat GPT-5.2 by ~370 Elo points
scaling01 · x · 2026-10-28
scaling01 extrapolates from Elo/ECI data: if we call the end-of-2026 model 'GPT-6' for fun, its jump over GPT-5.2 would match the gap from GPT-5.2 to o1, or o1 to GPT-4 Turbo — about 369.6 Elo points, implying an 89% win rate.
In follow-up discussion he notes the ECI launched a year ago, and that he abandoned his own Elo-based index after recognizing the supremacy of its IRT methodology. Speculative extrapolation, not official info.
Related event: Elo projections suggest 'GPT-6' could outscore GPT-5.2 by ~370 points(2 posts)→
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