Rebuilding 'Democracy Does Cause Growth': long-run GDP effect rises to 33.6% with 2024 data
ChenhaoTan · x · 2026-10-28
LivingScience rebuilt and extended Acemoglu, Naidu, Restrepo & Robinson's 2019 paper "Democracy Does Cause Growth":
- Replication succeeds: across 175 countries, 1960–2010, democratization raises long-run GDP per capita by 20% (21.2%); their rebuilt analysis matches the paper's estimate to the printed decimal
- Extended to 2024: the long-run effect rises to 33.6%; the 1986–2005 democratization cohort shows the largest gains
- Key caveat: only 16 transitions happened after 2010; measured alone their effect is 5.2% with a CI of -23 to 33 — too uncertain. Survival is the differentiator: only 39% of new democracies lasted ten years vs. 73% for the 1986–2005 group. The dividend only accrues while democracy survives.
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