Richard Ngo: Ken Binmore's critique of Bayesianism was more correct than the Sequences
RichardMCNgo · x · 2026-10-28
Richard Ngo, former OpenAI governance researcher, argues that while Eliezer Yudkowsky was writing the Sequences, game theorist Ken Binmore wrote Rational Decisions, which was "far more correct" about the limited role of Bayesianism in rationality. Binmore ended the book fearing that "Bayesianism will roll on regardless" — a worry Ngo calls very prescient, implicitly critiquing the AI community's Bayesian orthodoxy.
Related event: Richard Ngo Revives Binmore's Early Critique of Bayesianism(2 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- AI pundit predicts the 2020s will be the last decade of widespread poverty — Dr_Singularity · 2026-10-28
- Essay: your bodymind runs on --dangerously-skip-permissions, and you never opted in — mimi10v3 · 2026-10-28
- AI labor paper: Amdahl's Law explains who gets hit and who's shielded — not just the young — soumitrashukla9 · 2026-10-28
- LAIKA director vows never to use generative AI in films: "AI is theft" — moultano · 2026-10-28
- Ethan Mollick: the "AI is all fake" conspiracy should have died, but won't — emollick · 2026-10-28
- Google researcher: refusing AI as an artisan is honorable but impractical for the economy — moultano · 2026-10-28