Gary Marcus: Anthropic's real compute cost may hit $80B in 2026, propped up by Amazon subsidy
GaryMarcus · x · 2026-10-27
Citing investor presentation data, Gary Marcus argues Anthropic is far from profitable: it spent $7.2B on 1.4 GW in 2025 ($5.14B/GW) and plans $20B for 5 GW in 2026 ($4B/GW) — but its new N-Scale contract prices compute at $16B/GW, 4x its S-1 figure and near the $16-22B/GW industry standard. The gap comes from an Amazon deal worth roughly 75% off. At market rates, Anthropic's true 2026 compute cost would be $80B instead of $20B — a huge but presumably non-perpetual subsidy.
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