Inside p(doom): the rationalist subculture behind precise AI apocalypse odds
chrisalbon · x · 2026-10-27
Sharon Goldman investigates how Silicon Valley figures casually assign precise odds to AI doom: Eli Lifland gives 67% on AI takeover (40% extinction conditional), Evan Hubinger >10% extinction within a decade, Geoffrey Irving 50% before UK Parliament. Chris Albon questions what the numbers even mean — true guesses, in-group signaling, or attention-driving communication strategy? The piece traces a decades-old rationalist/EA subculture backed by millions in philanthropic money.
Related event: Inside p(doom): Why Silicon Valley Puts Odds on AI Extinction(5 posts)→
More from AGI Musings
- Mintlify: doc traffic up 10x in a year, agent traffic up 135x, 60% of edits agent-written — handotdev · 2026-10-27
- Dev job market: it's not fewer jobs overall, it's fewer easy jobs, says founder — yenkel · 2026-10-27
- Vox: Anthropic should quit the AI race unless it can prove its safety strategy works — GarrisonLovely · 2026-10-27
- Stanford's 457-page AI Index: cost down ~30%/yr, top-model gap narrows to 5.4% — mdancho84 · 2026-10-27
- Observer Launches 'Spiral' Podcast Investigating How AI Chatbots Warp Minds — TheObserverUK · 2026-10-27
- AI Now Institute: bets on our AI future are being made by a handful of billionaire tech CEOs — AINowInstitute · 2026-10-27