Heuristic for prediction accuracy: a bimodal probability histogram peaking at 0 and 1
moultano · x · 2026-10-27
moultano argues accuracy can only be judged relatively—"compared to what?"—but offers a practical heuristic: for predictions to be genuinely accurate, the histogram of predicted probabilities should be bimodal with modes at 1 and 0, rather than the slightly skewed uniform distributions most topics produce.
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