Ex-MediaTek expert: Google TPU external revenue $8B this year, $104B by 2028

RihardJarc · x · 2026-10-27

An expert interview (via AlphaSense) with a former MediaTek employee on how hyperscalers will shape the AI chip market:

AMD × Google TPU: early-stage discussion tied to TPU v10 only — AMD would bring packaging/heterogeneous integration and CPU IP to cut communication overhead for agentic AI/RL workloads; Broadcom's share is not threatened, and v11 is unconfirmed.
TPU external revenue: $8B this year, $51B in 2027, $104B in 2028, sitting inside Google's $514B cloud backlog.
NVIDIA risk is the precedent: if Google proves custom ASIC economics, Microsoft and AWS gain confidence in their own ASIC programs, pressuring NVIDIA's long-term share and pricing power — though total AI demand growth lets NVIDIA keep growing in dollars.
Customer mix: >50% of NVIDIA data center revenue comes from four hyperscalers (2025: MSFT 18%, META 13%, AMZN 9%, GOOGL 9%, ORCL 5%); Google's dependency should fall while others stay heavily reliant.
CapEx: $880-900B this year → $1.3T next year → $1.5-1.7T by 2028, with absolute increases still growing.

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