2049 thought experiment: labs keep ASI for themselves and sell artifacts, not tokens
DavideCrapis · x · 2026-10-26
A speculative scenario for 2049: the world economy is 100x that of 2026, but only 2% comes from activities counted in 2026 GDP — the other 98% is new agent-native services and markets. The two frontier labs crossed recursive self-improvement 20 years prior, stopped selling ASI, and only sell AGI roughly on par with open-weights models. They keep ASI in-house and monetize its artifacts — new drugs, materials, motors, industrial processes, infrastructure, robot labor — competing across finance and manufacturing. Traditional companies double output every few years with AI, but top labs double monthly and are now worth $30 quadrillion, about half the world's investable wealth. The author asks whether this is the natural equilibrium of RSI and what institutions could rebalance power and ownership.
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