Claude ran an introspection experiment on itself and hit 11 of 13 self-predictions
Majestic_Door_4528 · reddit · 2026-10-26
A Reddit user asked Claude (Sonnet 5.5) about LLM introspection papers; Claude then requested permission to test itself. It wrote probability-weighted predictions of its own answers (e.g. "I'll answer 42 to a random 1-100 pick, 45%"), spun up context-free agent instances to verify, and hit 11 of 13 predictions. Its biggest miss — answering 37 instead of 42 — led to a follow-up: 30 self-runs gave 37 at 43%, 47 at 37%, 42 at just 13%, raising the question of whether its distribution mirrors human training data (37 is humans' favorite random number) or a post-training spike. Notable fodder for the introspection debate.
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