Token usage doubling every 25 weeks could take AI from 0.1% to 4% of GDP in ~2 years
robleclerc · x · 2026-10-26
Rob LeClerc builds on token demand data (Anthropic #1, OpenAI #2 by share) with a simple formula linking token consumption to GDP share under conservative assumptions. At the typical 25-week token doubling rate, AI goes from 0.1% of GDP to 1% in about 16 months, then doubles again every 25 weeks to 2% and then 4%. His conclusion: the economic impact of AI will feel extremely abrupt as exponential growth kicks in.
More from AGI Musings
- Palmer Luckey cites Hamilton's 1791 report: anti-automation debates haven't changed in 200 years — ctjlewis · 2026-10-26
- Tyler Alterman: the conditions for an AI art revolution are set, talent is the blocker — sebpaquet · 2026-10-26
- Imagining abundance with scarcity-trained brains: why it feels impossible — Dr_Singularity · 2026-10-26
- "AI-native CAD" is just old UIs with LLMs inside, like Ford-era "engine-powered horses" — rms80 · 2026-10-26
- Mathematicians dissect OpenAI's fluid singularity paper: unprecedented smooth-force construction — Singularitarian · 2026-10-26
- Nina Beguš presents "Fiction Got Here First" on artificial humanities at Artificiality Summit — begusgasper · 2026-10-26