Why economists doubt AI can add 2pp of growth: it implies a generation-long India-to-China leap
Afinetheorem · x · 2026-10-25
Explaining why economists find "AI adds 2pp of annual growth" hard to believe: from 2001-2026, US real growth ran 1.5pp/year, compounding to 45% over 25 years. At 3.5pp/year, 25 years would yield 136% cumulative growth — equivalent to Malaysia→Switzerland, Uruguay→US, India→China, or Mexico→France in a single generation, a historically unprecedented leap.
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