Apollo chief economist: AI shows zero payoff for corporate America outside tech
rohanpaul_ai · x · 2026-10-25
Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok published a report arguing that despite massive investment and hype, AI has delivered zero financial payoff outside the tech sector: revenue per worker and profit margins keep rising for the Mag 7 but stay flat for the S&P 493, with no visible boost to productivity growth.
Key points:
- With no bottom-line impact, mainstream corporates now treat token spending as a cost center weighing on margins rather than a growth source, and won't pay for the latest models
- As long as agentic AI and token spending stay confined to a small slice of the economy, AI's macroeconomic effects will remain very limited
- Total factor productivity growth sits near 0%
- Cheaper commoditized models may not close the gap, since business value depends on judgment, accountability, trust and unwritten rules AI doesn't grasp
Poster rohanpaulai notes other signals he's watching don't support this gloomy take.
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