Demis Hassabis moves up his AGI forecast: fully here within 2-3 years
量子位 · wechat · 2026-10-25
In a WSJ interview, Google DeepMind chief Demis Hassabis sharply accelerated his AGI timeline: from his long-held 5-10 years, to 3-5 earlier this year, now to within 2-3 years.
His bar differs from benchmark-chasing: static tests like GPQA, AIME and SWE-bench are narrow optimization. True AGI needs the full breadth of human cognition plus original thinking — hence his "Einstein test": give an AI all science knowledge up to 1901 and see if it independently derives the 1905 miracle-year papers. DeepMind's strategy stands: solve intelligence, then solve everything else, prioritizing scientific breakthroughs over email-and-slides tooling.
He also criticized current regulation — legislating before understanding yields wrong rules, worse than none — and argued AI curing diseases is the best way to dissolve public fear. Context: Brockman says AGI has arrived, Huang says "it's now," Musk says next year, Amodei bets 2026-27, Hinton holds ASI at 5-10 years, LeCun stays skeptical.
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