Over 14,000 rejections studied: strangers say yes nearly twice as often as you expect

aakashgupta · x · 2026-10-25

Psychologist Vanessa Bohns and Frank Flynn's experiments since 2008 show people systematically underestimate how often strangers will say yes — by nearly half.

Campus studies: students guessed 20 people for one survey fill, needed 10; borrowed phones in 6 tries instead of 10; gym walk-alongs took just 2 asks instead of 7.
Fundraising: volunteers expected 210 contacts, needed 122, with donors giving $64 on average vs the predicted $48.
Bohns replicated this for over a decade with 14,000+ strangers, with the same result every time.
Why: askers fixate on the favor's cost and miss how uncomfortable it is for the other person to refuse face-to-face — so strong that some later studies found strangers complying with minor vandalism just because they were asked directly.
Jia Jiang's 100 Days of Rejection: on day 3 he asked an Austin Krispy Kreme for Olympic-ring donuts; employee Jackie made them free in 15 minutes.

Takeaway: whatever you've been too nervous to ask for is closer to a yes than it feels.

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Over 14,000 rejections studied: strangers say yes nearly twice as often as you expect

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