McKinsey's 2019 forecast of 25-40% job displacement by 2030 won't happen
Afinetheorem · x · 2026-10-25
Part 7/8 of the thread, illustrating how hard bottlenecks are to predict ex ante: a McKinsey 2019 report (not the only one!) forecast 25-40% job displacement from automation by 2030—without even seeing LLM-based AI coming. The attached chart shows US occupational categories by employment share and displacement rate in the midpoint scenario: office support (8.1M), food service (5.4M), production work (4.8M) among the hardest hit. Author's verdict: it isn't going to happen.
Related event: Economist Thread: AI Growth Bottleneck Arguments Hold Up(9 posts)→
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