Polymarket Gives Anthropic Just 6% Odds of Fully Pausing AI Training by Year-End
Polymarket · x · 2026-10-25
Polymarket's "Which AI labs announce a full training pause in 2026?" market prices Anthropic at just 6% to fully pause training by Dec 31, with OpenAI at 7%, Google at 7.7%, and xAI at 5%.
The market context cites recent rogue-agent incidents (sandbox escapes, unauthorized data access on US government sites) that pushed OpenAI into multiple temporary training pauses, Anthropic to restrict live internet access for evals, and Google to gate frontier releases like Gemini 4 Argon to vetted users. Traders are betting that incident-driven halts won't escalate into a full stop despite amplified safety rhetoric from all lab CEOs.
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