arXiv: 'Can LLMs Anticipate Their Cruxes?' — a priori rationales fall short, rollouts required
rohanpaul_ai · x · 2026-10-24
The arXiv page (2610.21006) for the University of Chicago paper defines cruxes as sub-questions that a model's rollouts disagree on, compares three extraction strategies — asking upfront, extracting from one rollout, and comparing many rollouts via a reranker (86x cheaper than a judge) — and finds the cheap options insufficient, making many-rollout comparison unavoidable for high-stakes decisions.
Related event: UChicago Paper Finds LLMs Cannot Anticipate Their Own Cruxes(4 posts)→
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