Ben Goertzel says Bill Gates' 20-year AGI-to-ASI transition estimate is too conservative
bengoertzel · x · 2026-10-24
Ben Goertzel weighs in on Bill Gates' interview about AGI and the path to ASI, calling his take somewhat conservative but basically rational.
- Gates thinks the tumultuous transition from here to ASI will likely take around 20 years; Goertzel suspects it will move much faster.
- Gates flags a different/better foundational AI architecture as a potential answer to AGI ethics issues, noting "a few are working on" it — Goertzel pointedly raises his hand.
- Gates doesn't think AI will make us live like the Amish; he expects a segment of the population to adopt an Amish-like stance of refusing AGI/ASI. Goertzel argues that share will shrink rapidly as the value of AGI becomes clear, while conceding it's a valid point.
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