a16z charts: GPU rental prices defy depreciation, up to 143% above trendline

a16z Newsletter · rss · 2026-10-23

a16z Charts of the Week: Attention, GPUs, and Reindustrialization

GPUs, still not obsolete

Per Ornn Data, every GPU model from newest to the oldest A100 costs more to rent than at the start of the year—highly unusual for assets meant to depreciate from launch
Versus straight-line 6-year depreciation, prices run 9% to 143% above the theoretical trendline; A100/H100 spent time below the line historically, but everything took off from April this year
OpenRouter token consumption inflected steeply upward in spring, plateaued briefly late summer, then jumped again—exponential for both open and closed models, with proprietary models gaining share last week. The data tells the opposite story of the FUD

Attention ceiling

Netflix revenue growth decelerated to 12%, lowest since the '21-'22 peak-scare; the real threat is a different medium (short-form video) competing for attention
BCG data shows US weekly media consumption topping out at 26hrs/week and declining modestly; growth now comes from "background" consumption—attention has become a zero-sum game

Supply-side oddities of AI capex

Of computers, comms, semis, and electrical equipment, only computers expanded both capacity and utilization; electrical equipment saw the biggest price surge while capacity actually declined—makers are sitting out the historic backlog
Imports in all four categories far outpaced domestic production growth
Per ADP, output growth in AI buildout sectors is coming from existing workers logging more hours rather than headcount gains; job-switchers enjoy a 5pp wage-growth premium over stayers, signaling skilled labor shortage

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