Updated Epoch ECI projection: open-source reaches Mythos-level by Oct–Dec 2026, leaving ~7 months
cephaloform · x · 2026-10-23
Seven months after the original analysis, spiceylemonade updates projections using Mythos and Epoch AI ECI scores: an open-source Mythos-level model arrives around Oct–Dec 2026, and Mythos-level capability hits Sonnet 4.6 / GPT-5.4 API prices around Nov 2026 (range Jul 2026–Mar 2027). Key inputs: fixed-performance inference prices fall 40x/year (90% CI: 10x–900x). Implication: Anthropic's Project Glasswing has about 7 months to secure the net before that model class becomes abundant.
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