Token demand to grow 24x by 2030 as power only 2x — why specialized AI chips will win
emax · x · 2026-10-23
An a16z piece citing Gimlet Labs' Zain Asgar argues the conditions that let general-purpose chips wipe out specialists (Thinking Machines, Cray Computer) in the '90s have reversed. Dennard scaling ended around 2005, transistor costs stopped falling around 2012, and memory bandwidth never kept up with compute. Meanwhile token demand is projected to grow 24x by 2030 while available power grows only 2x. When power is the bottleneck, performance per watt wins — the sweet spot for specialized chips.
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