Ben Todd: the most prescient AI forecasters all expect beyond-human AI by 2028-2029
ben_j_todd · x · 2026-10-22
Ben Todd names Carl Shulman, Daniel Kokotajlo (AI 2027), Leopold Aschenbrenner (Situational Awareness) and Ryan Greenblatt as the most prescient AI forecasters — nearly all expect broadly beyond-human AI in 2028-2029.
Shulman may have gotten the basic picture right earliest (see his 2023 Dwarkesh interview), and these are among the only people with detailed written forecasts that have held up while most others wildly underestimated progress. His read: AI company leaders are more right than most on direction but chronically overoptimistic, now claiming AGI in 1-3 years.
Related event: Top AI Forecasters See Superhuman AI Arriving in 2028-2029(2 posts)→
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