Two kinds of privacy could unlock prediction markets for info finance
devanshmehta · x · 2026-10-22
Devansh Mehta outlines two privacy models for prediction markets: hiding odds while outcomes are public (preventing free-riding on a sponsor's liquidity, e.g. a label seeding $25k on 'we'll sign artist XYZ' with a two-week opportunity window), and hiding the traded outcomes while odds are visible (enabling markets on proprietary info like candidate screening). He argues the second matters more for info finance—generating good opportunities is harder than picking among them—while acknowledging blind trading and self-dealing risks.
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