Tesla Q3 call: FSD ARR hits $1B, 20K Optimus/week targeted by end of 2027
PTrubey · x · 2026-10-22
Analysis of Tesla's Q3 call: 75% of US buyers paid for FSD at delivery; FSD ARR estimated at $1B (Tesla tacitly confirmed); new map architecture ships with FSD V15 (late 2026/early 2027); 5M vehicles/yr targeted by 2030 via factory densification; $45B cash. Optimus: first 5K–10K units all for internal training, AI5 chip volume April 2027 with 10x compute, first customer shipments end-2027 at 20K/week from Fremont; hands remain hardest. Unsupervised FSD for customer cars targeted 2Q27.
Related event: Tesla Q3 call: FSD nears $1B annual revenue, Optimus scales up(3 posts)→
More from Companies & People
- Levels.fyi analysis: promotion gap is about speed, not the final level — FinanceYF5 · 2026-10-22
- Sam Altman calls Anthropic's push to ascribe personhood to models a 'dangerous path' — MatthewBerman · 2026-10-22
- Walden Robotics CEO Russ Tedrake on how general-purpose robots could reshape manufacturing — adnothing · 2026-10-22
- Google DeepMind hiring 3 PhD Student Researchers for 2027 on frontier agent alignment — Swarooprm7 · 2026-10-22
- MAISI hiring Research Facilitator at $200K to support AI safety research ops — AndrewCritchPhD · 2026-10-22
- Microsoft AI health researcher Mayank Daswani departs after MAI-DxO work — aaron_defazio · 2026-10-22