Polymarket gives just 17% odds next Gemini Argon model ships by year-end
Polymarket · x · 2026-10-21
Polymarket has opened a market on when Google's next Gemini Argon model will be released, with only a 17% chance priced for a release by December 31 and 28% by January 31. Context on the market: Google announced Gemini 4 Argon on September 30 and opened it to paid subscribers, API developers, and enterprises on October 13; an internal successor codenamed Carbon is in testing, and phased safety reviews plus competition from Meta shape trader expectations amid typical AI development slippage risks.
More from Models
- Machine Witness: Weekly AI News Reacted to by Seven AI Models — kavanutz · 2026-10-21
- Small model Jev matches Opus on 95% of few-shot classifier calls; disagreements refine prompt — honnibal · 2026-10-21
- Google Cloud now serves OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google frontier LLMs with hot-swapping — rseroter · 2026-10-21
- User would pay double to get ChatGPT 5.5 back as newer versions turn verbose — arandorion · 2026-10-21
- Grok Bot word-of-mouth surges: builders and first-time users say 'it just works' — XFreeze · 2026-10-21
- Anthropic releases Claude Sonnet 5.5: Terminal-Bench jumps from 10.3% to 70.6%, tasks up to 30% cheaper — Aiden_Tech_Ai · 2026-10-21