Musk bets on spot-market compute: shortage will last years and prices only rise
sudoraohacker · x · 2026-10-21
A bull-bear duel over compute supply is playing out:
- The market worries AI is nearing a peak supply/demand imbalance, putting low multiples on AI chip and supply-chain stocks on peak-earnings fears.
- Musk has decided to sell SpaceX (SPCX) compute entirely on the spot market, betting the compute shortage persists for years and prices keep climbing as its value for doing jobs rises.
- The poster argues one side must be wrong — and if Musk is wrong, his expensive, short-term compute is the first place customers cut in an overbuild.
The author sides with Musk: rates will rise as capital floods into AI projects, and Wall Street is in for a rude shock.
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