Ben Todd bets on explosive AI growth by 2033, takes 10:1 odds challenge
ben_j_todd · x · 2026-10-19
Ben Todd, co-founder of Effective Altruism, is betting that explosive AI-driven economic growth is coming — possibly pushed past 2033 by robotics, but only 6 years away. Gabriel Unger offered him 10:1 odds, arguing the bet doesn't crowd out other investments since no funds are locked up. Todd countered that it still consumes "risk budget": pairing a $10k swaptions position with the same bet doubles his exposure to the thesis. The exchange also links to Todd and Alexander Olegimas's discussion of robotics timelines, and Todd says he's keen to hear pushback.
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