Chollet: Engineers Hit Record Numbers as Agents Write ~100% of Code, Bottlenecks Remain
manuelkoelman · x · 2026-10-21
François Chollet posted observations on the 'total' automation of software engineering, extended by Manuel Koelman's essay:
- There are more software engineers than in 2025 and demand keeps growing; engineers work harder than ever—yet agents now write 100% of the code.
- Koelman's take: 'feeling fast and being fast are different things.' In big companies, writing code may be only 20% of shipping; making it free speeds the whole process at most 1.25x because the other 80%—deciding what to build, reviewing, operating—remains.
- Cheaper software means more software (Jevons-style), but 'demand grows 10x' and 'jobs are safe' are distinct claims: demand could grow 10x while productivity grows 100x—more software, fewer coders, both true at once.
- When code is nearly free, the scarce skill is picking up the phone when it breaks.
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