Eli Dourado: AI-native newcomers, not incumbents, will eat the market — but slowly
elidourado · x · 2026-10-20
In a debate with David Manheim, economist Eli Dourado argues AI-driven disruption will come mostly from new firms eating the market rather than incumbents adjusting, and it will take time — AI-native hospital systems and car companies founded in 2027 won't have huge market share by 2031. Manheim counters that incumbents could be displaced by AI-first competitors underpricing them by 2x or more by removing human labor costs, citing Lemonade, which sells over 10% of renters insurance in some states and grows 20%+ YoY.
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