Polymarket odds give DeepSeek just 1% chance of IPO by end of 2026
Polymarket · x · 2026-10-20
Polymarket has launched a "DeepSeek IPO by...?" prediction market with over $52K in volume. Traders give just a 1% chance of a listing by Dec 31, 2026, rising to 15% by March 2027, 35% by June, 62% by September, and 65.7% by year-end 2027.
The sentiment is driven by DeepSeek's September 2026 engagement of CITIC Securities for a Shanghai STAR Market listing and a pre-IPO round targeting 80–100 billion yuan at a 500 billion yuan valuation, with Tencent and CATL among major backers. The October 17 release of the open-weight V4.1-Flash-1017 model underscores ongoing technical progress, while rivals like Moonshot AI pursue similar timelines.
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