Back-of-envelope math: DeepSeek could hit $1B annualized revenue on ~33 NVL72 racks
teortaxesTex · x · 2026-10-20
teortaxesTex cites DeepSeek's blog-disclosed 155T tokens/day on a single-server-equivalent cluster to argue that, with peak/off-peak pricing, DeepSeek can sustain roughly $1B in annualized API revenue on just 33 NVL72 GB200 rack equivalents.
- The quoted post notes this implies inference providers now run a 90%+ gross margin serving business.
- An attached ChatGPT workthrough: peak pricing is 2x off-peak across 35 peak hours/week (avg multiplier 1.21); sustained paid traffic at 155T tokens/day yields $950–980M/year with flat load, potentially exceeding $1B with residual peak concentration.
- Revenue inference doesn't require GB200s — token volume and tariffs set revenue; hardware assumptions only set capex and margins. Unknown: how much traffic is actually paid API usage.
Related event: DeepSeek Reportedly Hits $1B ARR, Needs Only ~3,000 GPUs(4 posts)→
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