Jason Wei: Radiologists Won't Be Automated Away — Elastic Demand Is Underrated
Jason Wei · rss · 2026-10-19
OpenAI researcher Jason Wei argues radiologists won't be automated soon, countering Hinton's 2016 prediction. Key points: (1) The jagged edge of intelligence — radiology spans hundreds to thousands of conditions, so AI starts as triage, with full automation 3-5 years off at best. (2) Elastic demand (Jevons paradox) is the most underrated factor: near-zero interpretation cost means 5x more scans, driving demand for cheaper scanners and routine preventative full-body MRIs. (3) Medicine changes — new protocols, scanners, and disease-prediction research will keep creating work, while HIPAA and slow healthcare adoption further delay automation. He generalizes: any field with elastic demand and quality that scales with intelligence will flourish alongside AI. Hinton has since acknowledged he was wrong.
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