Morgan Stanley: 2027 AI capex hits $1.58T with leases counted; Nvidia takes 44%
rohanpaul_ai · x · 2026-10-20
Morgan Stanley puts 2027 hyperscaler and neocloud AI spending at $1.58T once data-center leases count as capex. Hyperscalers hold over $1.1T in unbegun leases that act like debt-funded purchases but never show as capex. About 65% ($1.03T) lands in S&P 500 revenue, with Nvidia taking $690B—44% of the entire budget—leaving $340B for the other 499 index members and $550B flowing outside the index. 2027 is projected as the peak cash-shortfall year, with debt-funded GPU-rental neoclouds most exposed to financing costs.
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