US AI lead over China is just ~6 months, IFP report says policy could double it
fiiiiiist · x · 2026-10-20
A new 23k-word IFP report, six months in the making, analyzes how Chinese AI companies' compute access and distillation of American models shape the US-China capability gap, with an interactive model visualizing policy scenarios.
Key findings:
- The US AI lead is currently only about 6 months
- Using authorities already available, the US could roughly double that lead to over a year
- China's access to AI chips will roughly double
- Given short-run supply constraints — HBM capacity booked through 2027, chip designers receiving only 60-70% of requests, NVIDIA expecting shortages through FY2028 — cutting Chinese firms' remote access to US clouds would redirect compute to American companies rather than reduce sales
- Recommended measures include an antitrust safe harbor against adversarial distillation, export controls on remote training-cluster access, anti-smuggling due diligence, expanded chip export controls, and red-flag guidance on HBM smuggling
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