Critic: Prediction Markets Are Almost All About the Past, Not the Future
teodorio · x · 2026-10-20
Responding to Pablo Antonio's "Tired: prediction markets about the future / Wired: prediction markets about the past" quip, user teodorio observed that heavy Polymarket users eventually realize nearly every prediction market is about the past and almost none about the future. The point: liquidity concentrates on events that are imminent or partly resolved, so these markets mostly price known information rather than forecast genuinely uncertain outcomes.
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