For decisions under $1M, AI forecasters are good enough and 100x cheaper
NathanpmYoung · x · 2026-10-20
NathanpmYoung argues that question generation, scenario analysis, and accountable reports are still worth paying humans for—but reflexive forecasting to figure something out should just be done by AI. In a follow-up he adds that paying human forecasters for general questions is pointless right now: use Claude or services like FutureSearch, and for decisions worth under $1 million, AI forecasters are probably fine at roughly 100x lower cost.
More from AGI Musings
- Stardock CEO: local AI will dominate most AI work in 18 months, datacenters pointless — draginol · 2026-10-20
- Fields Medalist John Pardon: "The AI understands. 100%" — it now catches subtle errors in his notes — thesaraharminta · 2026-10-20
- Aaron Levie says agent swarms will unlock compute-bound work, but humans can't review them — dosco · 2026-10-20
- Sinofsky: AI struggles in companies because most workers can't flowchart their own jobs for agents — a16z · 2026-10-20
- The real new threat isn't a permanent underclass but the dissolution of the middle class — max_paperclips · 2026-10-20
- Joke about an alternate AI timeline where CEO Emmett Shear slowed everything down — wordgrammer · 2026-10-20